Two new position out Thursday give Democrat Jared Polis more reason for confidence in the election for Colorado governor, though one suggests a slight alteration in his race against Walker Stapleton.
Less than a week out from Tuesday’s election, the Boulder congressman’s bigger margin over the Republican state financial officer — 8 percentageage points — comes in the Colorado Poll conducted by a Democratic pool that includes Telluride-based Keating Research; it found Polis leading 50 percentage to 42 percentage among 517 likely voters.
Meanpiece, a Republican polling firm that has surveyed the race regularly gives Polis a narrower lead, 45 percentage to 40 percentage. That 5-point margin in Magellan Strategies’ latest poll, which surveyed 500 likely voters on Monday and Tuesday, compares to a 7-point lead for Polis in Magellan’s last poll, conducted three weeks ago.
In some of the new position, Polis notched double-digit leads over Stapleton among women, independent voters and voters in their 40s or jr.. Notably, the Magellan poll according more voters undistinct overall (11 percentage) than the Colorado Poll (4 percentage).
“Despite a alteration of the ballot test, taking everything into consideration, we believe that Jared Polis has the inside track in the leftover week before the election,” aforesaid David Flaherty, the Republican founder of Louisville-based Magellan.
The change in Polis’ margin in that poll — he has led 47 percentage to 40 percentage in two previous Magellan position — was inside the margin of error of the new poll (plus or minus 4.8 percentageage points).
But it comes amid an onslaught of TV ads assaultive Polis in recent weeks.
Those ads, run by an outside group, are based on a 1999 incident in which Polis physically blocked his personal assistant from departure his office. She pleaded guilty to stealing documents from him and Polis was cleared, but the ads have emphatic that Polis pushed her. Multiple media fact checks have deemed the ads misleading.
Flaherty aforesaid Stapleton remains the clear failure, given Polis’ consistent leads as well as mail ballot returns that, so far, show registered Democrats and independent voters outpacing their 2014 midterm turnout. Republicans, piece leading slightly in returns through Tuesday, were underperforming significantly compared to the GOP wave election four years ago.
The Democratic positionters’ survey was conducted between Oct. 25 and Tuesday by Keating, Denver-based OnSight Public Affairs and campaign strategian Jake Martin. Its margin of error was plus or minus 4.3 percentageage points.
“In 23 years of polling in Colorado, a comprehensive candidate with this type of 7- to 8-point lead in the position has ne'er lost the election,” positionter Chris Keating aforesaid in the polling memo.
Both position were conducted exploitation live phone interviews, at least half via cell phones.
Polls’ leads not as different as they seem
Because of differing shares of party affiliations among each poll’s respondents, Magellan’s 5-point margin for Polis is closer than it may appear to the 8-point result in the survey by the Democratic positionters.
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The Keating-OnSight position’ sample was split evenly between Republicans, Democrats and independent voters.
But Magellan has weighted its position so that its samples include 35 percentage registered Republicans, 33 percentage Democrats and 31 percentage independents.
Flaherty aforesaid Magellan distinct to retain the same party weight for the new poll for comparison’s sake, even though he thinks that Republican-leaning spread looks more optimistic for the GOP than the actual turnout is bearing out.
Other nuggets from the position:
- The position found limited support for two other candidates: philosopher Scott Helker, who received 4 percentage in the Keating-OnSight poll and 3 percentage in the Magellan poll; and Unity Party candidate Bill Hammons, who received 1 percentage in each poll.
- The Keating-OnSight poll found that 59 percentage of its sample had an unfavorable view of President Donald Trump, with 39 percentage holding a favorable view of the Republican president.
- That poll besides found that U.S. Sen. Cory Gardner, a Republican up for re-election in 2020, had a 42 percentage favorability rating, with 43 percentage expression they had an unfavorable view. But Gardner’s 71 percentage favorability rating among Republican respondents trailed Trump’s 82 percentage rating inside the same group.
Document: memorandum for poll by Magellan Strategies
Document: memorandum for Colorado Poll by Keating/OnSight/Martin Campaigns